The divergent regions and the rapidly changing demographics of Virginia make the state a great test cast for presidential campaigns for 2016, say two veteran campaign operatives of national and state politics.
Tucker Martin is advising Super Pac American Leads which was launched to support Chris Christie’s bid for the presidency, Ellen Qualls was the communications director for the President Obama reelection campaign.
Martin says that in Virginia the nature of elections is now different. He noted that in the 2010 election fewer than 50% of the resident of the state were born in Virginia.
Many believe the state is a typical southern state, but it is not that any longer. It could be just the same as competing in suburban Philadelphia.
Martin could not minimize the challenge the Republicans have in 2016. He added that if the Democrats are able to carry the 18 states along with the District of Columbia that they have taken in six consecutive elections, the nominee would have 242 electoral votes or just 28 shy of entering the White House.
The Democrat is able to start on the one-yard line, but that does not guaranteed a victory, as the Republicans fare better when a key issues is national security and guess what is becoming more and more key after the recent shooting in California.
The Democrats have not become enthusiastic over their likely 2016 nominee Hillary Clinton. It is also rare when the same party remains in the presidency for three consecutive terms. The last time that happened is when George H.W. Bush who as a vice president won following two terms by Ronald Reagan.
Quall said that once it is more apparent Clinton will win, the Democrats will fall in line enthusiastically and they will try to repel the candidate form the GOP to keep an immigrant baser from reaching the White House.
Martin said that Trump would likely not be the GOP nominee. He said the GOP field is very crowded and makes 23% feel much bigger than the 23% really is. Once Iowa and then New Hampshire vote during February, the field will thin out to between 5 and 7 GOP candidates, and then the 23% will not be as big as the votes will not be so spread out.